Could Obama Side-Step the 2nd Amendment & Still Limit Guns?

The task force on gun violence headed by Vice President Joe Biden is scheduled to release its recommendations to President Obama and the public this week. My gut tells me that whatever the findings and proposals come forward, the President may well do something completely unexpected and, so far as I can tell, Constitutional to achieve his progressive goal of  limiting gun ownership. 

So, I am going out on a limb to make a prediction how that goal might be reached. First however, some context.

Missteps by Gun Rights Advocates

The National Rifle Association and other gun groups have been awkward in their defense of the Second Amendment. The shouting matches with Piers Morgan on CNN and the clumsy press conference by the NRA Chairman, Wayne LaPierre, have made many gun supporters cringe. Clearly, the country was traumatized by Sandy Hook (not to mention Aurora, Colorado, and similar recent tragedies). And, the country - including many gun owners - feel that guns should be kept out of the hands of criminals (which they won;'t be) and the unstable (which they won't be). Constitutional rights become, to many Americans, abstractions when faced with the images twenty dead children. Put another way, sentimentality trumps reason.

Gun advocates have also bungled their case by focusing on gun deaths rather than making clear what a ban on the ownership of guns will to to the overall crime rate. With the all but total bans on guns (including pistols), the UK and Australia have seen violent crime - including rape, burglary and non-gun homicides soar. (It is also revealing that in the last six months, President Obama's hometown of Chicago had 292 murders versus 221 killed in Iraq. Chicago, of course, has one of the strictest gun laws in the entire US.)

Political Constraints on Obama

The reality confronting President Obama, Vice President Biden and the anti-gun forces is that two-thirds of Americans are opposed to any restrictions on the rights of private, non-law enforcement citizens to own pistols. Since the Sandy Hook shootings, gun sales, applications for concealed carry permits and membership in the National Rifle Association have all sky rocketed. Congressional Democrats - as well as the President - are aware of these facts - and that these numbers translate into votes, especially in states with significant rural populations.



In other words, Democrats cannot risk appearing to be heavy handed in opposing what their constituents see as their Constitutional right to own guns. And the administration is also aware that the US Supreme Court in Heller v. District of Columbia in 2008 and more recently in McDonald v. Chicago in 2010 a citizen's right to possess firearms. Obama may feel that with those rulings, legislative restrictions might not survive a Court challenge (though it is likely that such a challenge would take years (McDonald took two years to make it to the Supreme Court, Heller, five).

My Prediction

Instead of confronting the Second Amendment, President Obama will seek to levy Federal taxes on firearms and ammunition. The taxes will be steep and punitive, thereby raising the cost of gun ownership for all current and future gun owners. While there may be other parts to an Obama gun policy, including mandatory background checks (which are already in place), and a restriction on magazine capacities, increased taxation fits the character of this President and side steps the Constitutional issues. The more powerful the firearm, the higher the tax rate is likely to be.

There are two approaches the Obama administration could take to raise taxes: Congressional action or, quite possibly, an Executive order. While tax legislation has a slightly better chance of making it through Congress than sweeping restrictions, my bet is not only will President Obama levy taxes, he will do so by issuing an Executive Order under the pretense of helping the Executive Branch carry out its Constitutional duties of ensuring the "general welfare " This action in itself may provoke Congressional (and certainly) citizen reaction. Nevertheless, President Obama hasn't been shy about metaphorically saying "go ahead, sue me" on a variety of issues.

Lost from view, no doubt, will be the unintended consequence of black markets developing for both guns and the ammo for them. We'll see what happens as the week progresses.